Russia-Georgia Conflict
I know most people probably aren’t paying a whole lot of attention to this, what with that sporting event and its parade of patriotic theatre, the shiny new political sex scandal starring an attractive former Presidential contender, and other news, but Russia and Georgia (the nation, not the state — ::rolls eyes::) appear to be at war.
So?
Well, a couple things. First, over the last several years, Russia has been getting scarier and scarier. They’re more economically powerful that they were at the fall of communism, there’s evidence of suppressing political opposition to Putin, and the conflicts with these former USSR states have been simmering for a long time.
Second, Georgia happens to be a fairly important ally to the US, economically and politically. It is one of the nations that plays host to the BTC Pipeline, pumping as much as 1% of the world’s total commercial oil out of the Caspian Sea while bypassing sticky situations like Iran and Russia.
Also, Georgia has sent about 2,000 troops into Iraq. That makes them the third largest player (after the US and Britain) in the vast ::cough cough:: coalition of nations involved in the Iraq conflict. But wouldn’t you know it, they get invaded and suddenly those Georgians are asking the US to help them get those troops home. I’m shocked, shocked that they’re not going to stay the course because of a little thing like open warfare on their native soil.
Meanwhile, between owing China gobs of money for making all those pretty things we buy at Wal-Mart, this new hint at a militarized Russia, and the fact that the US Dollar is underperforming when placed next to basically every other industrialized country’s currency… well, this all sounds like the recipe for one of two things. Either we’re looking at a new world order where the US relinquishes it’s title as the world’s dominant superpower (and that’s the happy outcome), or I think we may someday look back on August 8, 2008 the same way we recall the June 28, 1914 assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria — the opening act of a new World War.
It’s not as far-fetched as it seems, either. Nearly any action by the US is going to escalate the Georgia-Russian war, but inaction may serve as a signal that Russia has nothing to lose by reclaiming the USSR empire. If Russian action doesn’t end at this exchange (which is not as simple as “Russia invades other country”, either, the specific territory in question is crawling with Russian loyalists and citizens), the US and Europe will be forced to respond. Let me tell you, though, when push comes to shove, I’m not placing any bets on where China sides in that fight.
And let’s not ignore the fact that our village-idiot-in-chief has several personal stakes at play, now. Obviously, oilman Dubya wants his straw drinking the milkshake up without any interference from non-Democratic nations (read: non-free market capitalists). But beyond that, the American people have become numb to the Iraq and Afghan situations. War with Iran is already unpopular and probably too predictable. But if the US were to go to war (or even heightened adversarial roles) with our old boogeymen the Russians… well, who would you vote for? Young, inexperienced, hopeful and different - or - war veteran, no-nonsense and familiar?
The bombs are dropping, the death count is rising, and the situation is getting worse.
p.s. Can I also say that I’m not an expert in foreign affairs and most of what I know about this region comes from reading the news and doing some research in the last 24 hours. I acknowledge any errors as a product of my own ignorance. On the other hand, I now feel 50 times more informed than the average American at the moment.
Posted: August 9th, 2008 under politics.
Comments: 8
Comments
Comment from Serge
Time: August 10, 2008, 11:41 am
How long USA and so called “democratic countries” will cover the truth about this war?Around 1000 USA marines and military instructors use to train georgian troops before this war.USA,ISRAEL,UKRAINE, sold weapon to Georgia in huge volume.At this days african -americans military instructors were found dead in South Ossetia.New Hitler,Saakashvili who killed 2000 people mostly kids,elderly people has protection from USA,ISRAEL,UKRAINE,GB and some “friends countries”.Genocide by Saakashvili rewarded by countries who sold weapon to this dictator.Newspapers,tv,radio telling the same story about Russian invasion,buy nobody says,that this war was planned event,long time before by good paid dictator Saakashvili. This is moment of truth and sooner or later people and countries who did it will punished by God.
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Comment from Jere
Time: August 10, 2008, 5:22 pm
Okay, Serge, I probably welcomed the crazy when I started trying to call attention to this situation, but slow your roll, buddy.
Yes, it’s true that the US helped train and build up Georgian military forces. It’s all over the news. No one is really denying that and it’s a relevant fact I ought to have mentioned.
However, comparing Saakashvii to “New Hitler” wins you the first coveted Reductio ad Hitlerum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_Hitlerum) award for 2008. Also, in keeping with the dictates of Godwin’s law, you lose the debate.
Furthermore, your injection of Israel into this debate raises the great red flag of antisemitism, which often appears in this format before becoming full-blown Zionist conspiracy theory nonsense.
So you, my friend, lose.
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Comment from Prabal
Time: August 11, 2008, 5:05 am
Hi Jere,
Im writing in from India. Im no expert on the conflicts in this region, but it seems to me that it was Georgia that provoked the war by launching a full-scale offensive against the population of Southern Ossetia. Now when the Russians have response with force, the Georgians have gone crying to US and the UN, claiming that another fledgling democracy is being trampled upon by the big bad Russians!
Dont start a war if you cant end it!
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Comment from Jere
Time: August 11, 2008, 12:57 pm
Interesting. I’ve read other analysis that suggests both sides wanted this fight. Russia’s expansion of violence far beyond the borders of South Ossetia would undermine your argument a bit, too.
Look, the fact of that matter is that this region has been in conflict since the end of the Cold War. There’s never been a peaceful status quo. Until last weekend, however, the conflict was fought with economics, social politics, clever games of bait and respond, diplomatic relationships, and racism/religious intolerance. Figuring out “who started it” or “who is in the right” is only important when you’re talking about playground rules of fairness. None of the political leaders of the world give a shit about who did what first, except in how it plays as spin. What’s really at stake for the powerful and wealthy is access to oil supply lines, showing military dominance, and promoting politically favorable zeitgeist in their home nations.
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Comment from Cliff O’Neill
Time: August 12, 2008, 8:40 am
Jere, thanks for your insightful view of this. I’ve been reading the same things and, in the midst of it, I am continually flummoxed by this “who started it” business.
In my view, there are no white hats in this fight, but one side surely has the overwhelming force to destroy a hell of a lot of civilization in the name of nationalism (and, one could argue, economic gain).
Thanks again for your well-thought-out post and brilliant response to, er, “the hatas”?
(BTW, I think the first commenter may have been the person I mentioned in my other comment.)
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Comment from JCD
Time: August 15, 2008, 12:08 am
“Can I also say that I’m not an expert in foreign affairs and most of what I know about this region comes from reading……”
Ok thanks but no thanks, that line and the fact that you seem to have some sort of issue with capitalism renders your opinion worthless to me.
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Comment from Jere
Time: August 15, 2008, 5:43 pm
And you’re bothering to comment because…?
Dude, since I wrote this, there have been, like, 5,000 reports by people more versed in the subject that I never pretended to be an expert on. But you’re commenting here just to be a dick.
I don’t have a problem with capitalism, I have a problem with pure, unchecked capitalism and unregulated market control of industry, human rights, information, technology and trade. I favor a mix of socialism and capitalism that allows opportunity, but also controls the greedier aspects of corporations and creates a social safety net.
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Comment from Android
Time: August 20, 2008, 3:57 am
I’m rather engrossed in knowing the real interest that the USA has on this, because I know for sure that where USA is affiliated there is a motive behind and it always has its connections to capitalism. And why this matter is saturated with international interference, more specially when in concerns Russia, while in contrast when a similar thing is instigated by the USA not much is countered. Do I smell a possible out brake of the Great War or is it my senses? Just trying to see what’s behind the curtain, neither am I an expert in foreign affairs, excuse me.
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