Blind Prophecy

I’m very much aware that blog yesterday on the powder keg that the Georgia-Russia conflict represents sounds very much like that guy, the one always complaining that the media is mostly talking about Britney Spears when Kosovo is burning or Sudan is bleeding.

I’m also aware that in reality, cooler heads will likely prevail and WWIII is going to be harder to start than yesterday’s post would indicate.

That said, the little political prophet in my subconscious is agitated. In early 2002, I was playing the role of Chicken Little screaming that the sky was falling and we’d regret it if we marched into Iraq. In the late 1990s I was telling my friends in college that we’d not only see gay couples getting legally married in our lifetimes, but that it was going to happen within 10 years. After watching a mostly unknown junior senator from Illinois make an incredible speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, I went to work and told my coworkers to keep an eye on this Barack Obama, he was going to be a presidential contender.

(Side note: this is sorta the reason for this blog’s name – Blind Prophecy)

I’m not Nostradamus. I don’t pretend to have any psychic powers or anything. I just think I’m rather good at spotting patterns, predicting social trends, and considering the ramifications of events. And it’s hard not to sound like some sort of conspiracy theorist when that internal silent alarm goes off.

Here are some pieces of the puzzle that are bothering me…

Two months ago, Salon ran an article on John McCain that begins:

John McCain is a saber-rattler when it comes to Russia. On the campaign trail, the Republican presidential candidate warns of the “dangers posed by a revanchist Russia.” A quick Google search produces video of McCain plodding through his oft-repeated joke that when he looks in Vladimir Putin’s eyes, he sees three letters: KGB (and not, like George Bush, Putin’s “soul”).

Do I see this as evidence of John McCain’s obvious foreign affairs experience and wisdom? No. Do I see this as evidence that economic power players around the world might favor a return to the arms race of the Cold War? Maybe. Does the little crazy part of my brain that wants to build a tin foil hat to protect me from the spies think that the whole Georgia-Russia conflict might have been orchestrated by a shadowy organization that wants McCain in office and the price of oil going up and defense contractor profits on the rise indefinitely? Yeah.

Regardless, we have Presidential candidate John McCain suggesting that Russia be excluded from the G8 and establishing himself as hostile toward the current Russian government. We have a Russian nation more economically stable than it’s been since the fall of communism, largely because of it’s oil supply, making “far disproportionate” retaliations against a former Balkan state’s attack on Russian peacekeepers. We have Georgia desperately trying to join NATO and the European Union but being politely stalled several months ago now reaching out for help from the Western countries it hoped to call allies – and those nations are standing back and doing very, very little because to do otherwise might escalate the situation out of control (and what message does that send to other small countries in the region considering economic and political ties to the Western world?).

There’s so much more to take in – the oil pipeline, the role of China in dealings with Russia, the role of Russia in stabilizing the region and keeping Iran’s nuclear development in check, the conflicted and confusing loyalties and wishes of the citizens in disputed territories, and more.

So, I’m sorry if I’m sounding paranoid. I’m sorry if I’m sounding like that guy. I hope I’m wrong.

Finally, some graphic images of the violence. I don’t want to embed them right in the post, but I think it’s important sometimes that we look at war. Warning: these images include dramatic photographs of dead bodies in the nation of Georgia. Image 1 Image 2 Image 3

Filed under: politics by Jere Keys